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Coronavirus: How We Predict What Might Happen Next

Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, speaks as she points to a model of the effects of coronavirus during a press briefing on March 31, 2020.
Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, speaks as she points to a model of the effects of coronavirus during a press briefing on March 31, 2020.

On Tuesday, the White House coronavirus task force told reporters as many as 240,000 Americans are projected to die from COVID-19, and that’s only if the entire country maintains strict social distancing measures.

The figures come from a series of different models, including one from  Imperial College London, which says up to 2.2 million Americans could die if nothing is done to mitigate the virus’ spread.

The task force also referenced a report from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which says the number of U.S. deaths-per-day from coronavirus will peak over the next two to three weeks.

How are scientists making these models? And what do they mean for Americans still hoping to get outside before June?

 

 

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